Deal or Delay? Markets await Iran signing date and key interest rate decisions Pdf-4

Regional markets – Iran deal outcome and inflation data to set the regional tone

GCC markets start the week focused on the US-Iran peace agreement, with President Trump saying yesterday that a deal is “scheduled to get signed” today, while Iran is pushing back on the timeline. Trump also said that the Strait of Hormuz would be “open to all” after a deal, but the key question for investors is how quickly de-escalation can translate into safe passage. Confidence will take some time to rebuild, so oil prices, freight rates and insurance premia will only adjust in stages rather than in one go. Investors will also watch Saudi Arabia’s May inflation and wholesale price data.

Global markets – Central bank pointers to help clarify interest rate path

Global markets have plenty to digest this week, with rate decisions due from the US Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England. The Fed meets on Wednesday for the first time under Kevin Warsh. No rate change is expected, with CME FedWatch putting the probability of unchanged rates at 97%, so the market will look instead at the Fed’s new forecasts and the move in US Treasury yields. SpaceX will also remain in focus after its record IPO, with the trajectory of the stock to give cues for the other giga IPO pipeline (Anthropic, OpenAI).

Note to Management – GCC sentiment stabilises but analysts press for evidence

The Iridium GCC Earnings Call Sentiment Index stabilised at 29.5 points for 1Q 2026 earnings calls held in April and May 2026, settling just above the long-term average of 28.2 points after the steep decline for earnings calls held in March. But the headline sentiment index masks a major split between prepared management remarks and Analyst Q&A sessions. One analyst captured the sentiment of the quarter, saying: “We've been on 3 calls today and everyone keeps telling us everything is okay, and it's really hard to understand how that's possible.” Management Presentation sentiment rose 4% from March to 39.6, while Analyst Q&A sentiment fell 32% to 11.8. The resulting Sentiment Bias widened to 28%, as analysts pressed management teams on positive results, guidance assumptions, margins, funding conditions and exposure to the ongoing conflict. Download the full 1Q 2026 Iridium GCC Sentiment Report to explore these insights in detail.

Dubai (+3.2%) led GCC markets this week, followed by Abu Dhabi (+2.0%), as UAE equities rallied on US-Iran deal expectations and resulting moves in banks and real estate. Emaar gained on plans for a new Dh200 billion Dubai masterplan, while Emirates NBD, FAB and Aldar also supported the rebound. Saudi Arabia (+0.5%) ended higher, helped by large caps, while Bahrain (0.0%) closed flat. Kuwait (-0.4%), Oman (-0.3%) and Qatar (-0.7%) closed lower as regional volatility weighed on sentiment.

US markets posted moderate gains, with the Dow Jones (+0.7%) and NASDAQ (+0.7%) slightly outperforming the S&P 500 (+0.6%), as SpaceX’s record IPO lifted the mood and lower Treasury yields supported growth stocks. European markets were mostly positive, led by the STOXX Europe 600 (+1.7%) and CAC 40 (+1.6%), followed by the FTSE 100 (+1.0%). Germany’s DAX (-0.5%) was the only major European index to end lower, weighed by concern over tighter ECB policy after its latest rate hike.

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