GCC markets look to 30+ Earnings Calls and OPEC+ output quotas for direction

Regional markets – OPEC+ and 30+ earnings calls lead a busy week

OPEC+ meets today and is expected to approve a 188,000 bbl/d increase in September output quotas, completing the rollback of the 2023 voluntary cuts. The decision comes as Washington threatens further strikes on Iran, Tehran has stopped vessels attempting to leave the region, and Kuwait has reported drone attacks on strategic sites. We expect the 2Q reporting cycle to peak with over 30 earnings calls scheduled this week, including key names like ACWA Power, ADNOC Distribution, Alpha Data, Derayah, Elm, Flynas, Luberef, Ooredoo, PureHealth, Saudi Aramco, SNB, solutions by stc and Space42.

Global markets – US labour data, AI spending and EM rate decisions to guide risk appetite

This week, US labour data will be in focus as it could reinforce the case for a September rate hike (67% probability, according to CME Fedwatch) after the Fed held rates last week with three dissenters favouring an increase. July payrolls are expected to rise by 91,000, unemployment to edge up to 4.3% and average hourly earnings to increase 0.3% MoM. JOLTS, ADP employment and ISM manufacturing and services will also provide readings on hiring, activity and prices. AMD and SpaceX earnings calls will update the AI spending outlook, where investors remain focused on capex, margins and monetisation. In Europe, German industrial production and trade data and Euro Area retail sales will update the growth outlook. In emerging markets, China’s private PMIs and trade figures, alongside rate decisions in Brazil and India, provide the main macro signals.

Note to Management – IR Impact - The risk in silence

During a geopolitical conflict such as the current one, management’s instinct is often to protect the short-term share price, limit disclosure and wait for more certainty before communicating. Investors often take a different view. They have seen similar crises play out and are less concerned with tomorrow’s share price than with whether management understands the medium-term implications for the resilience of the business model and the equity story. That distinction is important because silence, delayed reporting or strategic messaging that shifts with every news cycle can reveal more about management quality than the disruption itself. A new IR Impact feature examines “What the Gulf’s IR teams learned from war, volatility and uncertainty” (link below).

GCC markets were another mixed bag last week as 2Q earnings supported the UAE, while renewed US-Iran hostilities weighed on Saudi Arabia and Qatar. Brent retreated and ended below $90/bbl as investors weighed higher supply against continued regional escalation. Oman (+2.2%) led gains, followed by Kuwait (+1.1%), Abu Dhabi (+0.9%) and Dubai (+0.2%). Bahrain (-0.5%), Qatar (-1.1%) and Saudi Arabia (-2.0%) declined. Qatar hit a new 52 week low.

Global equities advanced after a volatile week driven by the Fed decision and technology earnings. The NASDAQ (+1.6%) led US gains, while the S&P 500 (+1.0%) and Dow Jones (+1.0%) also rose. Amazon and Microsoft supported technology shares, offsetting Apple weakness. Europe also gained, led by the DAX (+2.1%), CAC 40 (+1.6%), FTSE 100 (+1.2%) and STOXX Europe 600 (+0.7%), supported by earnings and stronger Euro Area growth.