“Largely negotiated” Iran peace deal could set up GCC catch-up trade after Eid Pdf-1

Regional markets – Eid closures may delay market reaction to potential Iran peace deal

A “largely negotiated” Iran peace deal, with the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz framed as a core outcome, is the main regional catalyst to watch. Eid holiday closures should limit the immediate impact on GCC markets, but they also create scope for a catch-up trade once exchanges reopen, particularly if global markets, oil prices, shipping rates or insurance costs move while local markets are closed. On the macro front, Saudi Arabia is set to publish M3 money supply data. On the corporate front, A’Sharqiya Investment Holding and Ooredoo Oman are scheduled to host earnings calls. Gulf Navigation, Manazel and MBME Group will hold board meetings, while Integrated Holding Company will hold its EGM.

Global markets – US inflation, GDP revisions and technology earnings stay in focus

Global market sentiment this week will depend on US macro data, remaining technology earnings and any confirmed progress on Iran. In the US, core PCE, durable goods orders, the second estimate of 1Q26 GDP, personal income and personal spending data will be watched for signs of economic momentum and inflation pressure. Focus will also be on remaining technology names including Salesforce, Snowflake and Synopsys, as well as results from AutoZone and Costco for signals on consumer demand, pricing power and discretionary spending. In Asia, investors will watch Japan’s consumer confidence data, China’s NBS manufacturing PMI and Xiaomi’s earnings.

Note to Management – Expect the Iran peace deal to unfold in three stages

If a peace deal goes ahead, listed companies should expect markets to react in stages:

1. A formal statement that confirms de-escalation and sets out the main commitments and dates. This would drive the initial market response.
2. Details on operational steps to reopen the Strait, including rules for safe passage, enforcement, and how incidents are handled. This would be the main short-term driver for energy and logistics, affecting shipping rates, insurance costs, and crude oil futures.
3. A defined period for broader talks, with a timetable that can be extended. This would become the next market checkpoint, as investors track progress updates, missed milestones, and any renewed tension around compliance.

GCC markets trailed global equities last week, with Saudi Arabia (+0.3%) the only GCC market to close in positive territory. Abu Dhabi (-0.2%), Bahrain (-0.3%), Dubai (-0.3%) and Kuwait (-0.6%) recorded limited moves, while Qatar (-1.1%) saw a larger pullback. Oman (-4.1%) was the weakest performer in the region, extending its losing streak with another weekly decline, likely reflecting continued profit-taking.

In the US, the Dow Jones (+2.1%) led gains, followed by the S&P 500 (+0.9%) and the NASDAQ (+0.5). European markets also posted strong gains, led by Germany’s DAX (+3.9%), followed by the STOXX Europe 600 (+3.0%), FTSE 100 (+2.7%) and CAC 40 (+2.1%).