12 July 2026
6 minute read

Safe passage or more disruption? Markets to weigh new Iran strikes against 2Q earnings

Safe passage or more disruption? Markets to weigh new Iran strikes against 2Q earnings
30% read
The Week Ahead

Regional markets – 2Q earnings broaden as Iran conflict escalation is back in focus

We start this week with the Strait of Hormuz back under pressure. Iran’s foreign minister met Omani mediators on Saturday to discuss vessel transit, while Washington continues to demand a public Iranian pledge that attacks stop, all lanes stay open and no tolls will be applied. Yesterday, however, Iran attacked another commercial ship and the IRGC declared the strait closed again, prompting a fresh round of US strikes. Brent gained 5.6% last week as traffic slowed sharply, keeping tanker flows, freight and insurance costs in focus. 2Q reporting continues with earnings calls expected from Dukhan Bank, Dubai Islamic Bank, Qatar Islamic Bank, QNB and WOQOD.

Global markets – US CPI and bank earnings to set the tone

Global markets enter a busy week led by US CPI, Fed Chair Warsh’s congressional testimony and the start of 2Q earnings season. US inflation is expected to slow below 4% from May’s 4.2%, while core CPI is expected to hold at 2.9%, keeping attention on whether higher oil prices are feeding into broader price pressure. BofA, Citi, GS, JPM and Wells Fargo report results, giving investors the first read on margins, credit quality, loan demand and capital markets activity. Europe’s calendar is lighter, led by UK GDP and final Euro Area inflation. In Asia, China’s 2Q GDP, trade, credit, retail sales and industrial production will show whether demand is slowing, while TSMC earnings will add a read on AI demand and Asian technology capex.

Note to Management – Quarterly reporting remains an investor confidence issue

After the SEC’s comment period on optional semi-annual reporting closed last week, investor groups urged the regulator to keep quarterly reporting. The SEC has not yet announced a timeline for next steps. The debate is highly relevant for GCC issuers because it shows how strongly investors value regular, comparable disclosure when markets face volatility, geopolitical risk and business model uncertainty. Quarterly reporting gives management teams a recurring forum to explain performance, reconcile guidance with market conditions and reduce information gaps. As 2Q reporting broadens, companies should use their earnings release, presentation and call as one connected message across margins, cash flow, funding capacity, capital allocation and 2H guidance.

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